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August 7, 2023

Stocks Make It 5 In A Row. The Primary Trend is Up

The S&P 500 fell -2.27% this week with Friday's close at 4,478.03. The index closed higher by a smidgen on Monday but never found its way back into the 4,600s, and then declined each and every trading day the remainder of the week. The price action on Friday felt particularly negative, with the S&P 500 trading up to 4,540.34 during the session, only to then reverse lower by -1.37% into Friday's close. The seat belt light is on, but the primary trend is up so we anticipate any trade down towards the ~4,300 region to be a buying opportunity.

June 7, 2023

Stocks Breakout, A Rotational Breadth Rally Is Underway

The S&P 500 gained 1.83% this week with Friday's close at 4,282.37. The index has now increased three weeks in a row and Friday's close is the highest weekly close since April 14, 2022. We can't help but chuckle a bit at what transpired in both April and May where we wrote week after week how pivotal the price action would be, and instead the S&P 500 just parked itself in neutral and did absolutely nothing for two months. So, maybe it's June that's going to be the pivotal month, and if the first two days are any guide then perhaps the pivot is truly to the upside.

May 3, 2023

Stocks Remain At A Fork In The Road

The S&P 500's been "stuck" for two years now. What the S&P 500's price action in April did do is put the S&P 500 in position to break out to the upside. We called April's price action pivotal, but the S&P 500 decided to sit idle in park for the majority of the month and that's anything but a pivot. So now it's the price action in May that will probably prove pivotal and we can't imagine the index can idle for another month.

April 10, 2023

Stocks Are In Position To Breakout, But Can They?

The S&P 500 finished the month of March last week at 4,109.31, a gain of 3.51%. At March's month end, our work labeled the primary trend as "neutral", or trendless. However, much like the S&P 500 has first and goal from the 5-yard line on the daily chart, the index also has first and goal from the 5-yard line on the monthly chart too. Can the index breakout?

March 13, 2023

Surprise, A "Grey Swan" Emerges!

The S&P 500 plunged -4.55% this week with Friday's close at 3,861.59. The index traded fairly quiet most of the week until all hell broke loose after hours on Wednesday and into Thursday's trading when a quasi "gray swan" emerged and gave birth to a potential crisis of confidence across the banking sector.

February 6, 2023

Stocks Surge To Start 2023. Is 2023 Off To The Races?

The S&P 500 gained 1.62% this week with Friday's close at 4,136.48. Friday's weekly close is the highest weekly close since August of 2022. The index has now closed higher four of the last five weeks and has gained 7.73% over that time period. Based on January's strength our work now labels the primary trend for the S&P 500 as trendless, or "neutral". About all that's left for the S&P 500's primary trend to be labeled as up or "bullish" is for the index to close the month of February above the ~4,130 level. It feels like every month has been a pivotal month of late and the price action in February is no different.