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The technical picture for the S&P 500 remains cloudy with limited visibility. Since turning the calendar to August, the index has been mostly crawling to the upside. The S&P 500 is higher by 2.24% since July's monthly close at 6,339.39. This too is a tale of two sides of the coin. This sets the stage for an escalator up and elevator down scenario, but there's no reason to panic!
The S&P 500 fell -2.36% this week with Friday's close at 6,238.01. The index opened Thursday's session at a new all-time high at 6,427.02, but that's where the S&P 500 decided to slam on the brakes. While the forecast for the S&P 500's returns over the coming year look bright, the forecast for the index's returns in August look a bit murky.
The S&P 500 closed the month of May on Friday recording a gain of 6.15%. All things considered, we view the price action in May as very constructive and another sign of "accumulation". We believe that a retest of our all-time highs in the ~6,100s is the main event in the on-deck circle!
The S&P 500 gained 2.92% this week with Friday's close at 5,686.67. Finally, a two-week winning streak, and not just any two-week winning streak either! The index has gained a whopping 7.65% the last two weeks, the strongest two-week advance since the week ending October 28, 2022 - the last time the S&P 500 left a polarizing bottom on the chart. What's next?
The S&P 500 plunged -9.08% this week with Friday's close at 5,074.08. It's stunning to write and it brings back jarring memories to almost exactly five short years ago. we've placed a bullseye between the ~4,766-4,966 price region and this is where we have conviction in the idea that the S&P 500 will find its footing. In other words, we don't think it gets worse than that here in the month of April. While the price action feels totally bidless, we're not headed to zero within weeks. This sets the stage for a stunning "bear market rally".
The S&P 500 fell -1.00% this week with Friday's close at 6,040.53. The index woke up with a case of the Mondays this week with the S&P 500 opening the week at 5,969.04, a gap down of -2.16% relative to last Friday's close at 6,101.24. We traded back up to 6,120.91, a mere 7.27 points below our all-time high at 6,128.18, but that's where the S&P 500 got Trumped!
